Unpredictability & Chance in Science & Technology, John Meurig Thomas

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In chemical science as well as in most branches of natural philosophy, expert practitioners of their subject — judging by past experience — are often no better than members of the general public in foreseeing the scientific and technological future. The veracity of this statement will be illustrated (in terms that will also be intelligible to non-experts), and the reasons why this is so will be elaborated by reference to specific discoveries, advances and developments in chemistry, physics, medicine, molecular biology and astronomy.
http://www-hrem.msm.cam.ac.uk/people/thomas/

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